Someday, yet-to-be-written history books will refer to 2020 as the year when the world mastered a once-in-a-lifetime health crisis. People across the globe decided to resist a novel and mortal virus that hold their lives captive for long. This truly joint global effort carries many names: from stellar medical scientists who drove the speedy development of vaccinations, political leaders who quickly switched from normalcy to crisis management, military servicemen building field hospitals, dedicated doctors and nurses working tirelessly for their patients to millions of citizens who adjusted their private and professional lives during lockdown periods.

At the same time, by another joint effort, the majority of Americans voted for their country to return to decency, inclusiveness and truth.

At first glance, these two events seem to be unrelated – but they are not. Putting an end to the vicious circulation of the coronavirus and electing a democratic, open-minded U.S. President provide what millions of people are longing for: a reason for hope that 2021 will turn the page.

Seen through broader lenses of past global crises like wars, revolutions and pandemics, it seems that history is put on a fast-forward track. Processes that normally take decades to play out unfold in a short period of time. The coronavirus makes no difference. Like a turbocharger, the virus has accelerated existing global trends. It has created immense disruption; yet it will drive change and innovation for years to come.

For sure, it will take some time before the Corona dust settles, vaccination programmes are in place and millions of people receive their protective shots. Next year will probably be messy for a while but this is just how life works. The normality that we knew before the novel virus hit the globe may never fully return; but we are convinced that the post-Corona period will offer many new, exciting and valuable opportunities.

Boosting digitalisation and technology

For one, the pandemic has profoundly boosted digitalisation in almost every aspect of our lives. If anything, Covid-19 will leave the legacy of massive data and knowledge creation in the medical, technological, and social domains. While global knowledge typically doubles every 2-3 years, the 2020 crisis has dramatically altered the way we learn, consume, communicate, work and use technology. Working from home, doing physical exercises with eSports apps in living rooms or studying remotely on digital platforms are just but a few examples that are bound to become a steady feature for millions of people in the years to come. The same applies for communication. Users of the conference platform Zoom, for example, jumped 30x in just four months from 10 million in December to 300 million in April 2020. Other new technologies will follow suit, accelerating developments in quantum computing, vertical farming, autonomous driving and many more fields.

Looking ahead, governments, businesses and ordinary citizens should fully embrace digitalisation and explore how to best apply it for their own needs. In many professions, people can work from anywhere with an internet connection. This is exciting and it is important. It opens many more avenues for individuals and families to build their lives around new metrics of life – family, climate, inspiration, curiosity – versus traditional models of convenience to a nondescript desk in an open-plan office.

Renewed transatlantic power

The second reason for optimism stems from the new US President who will move into the White House on 2o January. Once President-elect Biden is inaugurated – and so long as the new Administration continues along a path of consensus-building and reaching across party lines to represent both Democrats and Republicans-in-exile as well as Republicans who voted for right-leaning policies without endorsing Trumpism itself - Americans and the world have the chance to leave four years of erratic, unpredictable and narcissist Trumpism behind.

Expectations for renewed American leadership are high across the globe. It is our expectation and our hope that the new President will seek to rally America’s friends and partners behind his policies. He will not alienate traditional allies and friends but will re-build strong coalitions against the backdrop of modern, 21st century priorities. He will strive for multilateral solutions. He will listen to what others have to say. And he will be ready for close collaboration. All this is fantastic news for thoughtful leadership and governance, without trading out strength in decisive policymaking.

But the new U.S. Administration will also face geopolitical rivalry, fierce economic and technological competition, populism, authoritarian rulers and multiple other challenges. These range between the repercussions of climate change, assertive regimes in Russia and Iran, unsettled wars and conflicts in the Middle East, to yet-unknown risks to our health and well-being.

When travelling to Europe sometime in spring next year, President Biden will ask Europeans to live-up to a fairer share of the political, economic and military leadership, present their own actionable proposals and make tough choices. No doubt, China will be high on the transatlantic agenda. Certainly, the new President will invite Europeans to join forces in containing the rise of an authoritarian-ruled China and to curb sensitive trade with Beijing – especially on key technologies like artificial intelligence and biotech, and critical infrastructure like 5G. Europe and the US will likely be still be at odds over some of those issues, but we are convinced that now is the time for the West to close ranks with other democracies around the globe. This is the real opportunity in the moment. If these diplomatic missions are well-curated, democracy will witness its first global renaissance moment. This is a powerful narrative and an overdue one after decades of democratic complacency.

Re-thinking and re-adjusting economies

More political predictability will also help companies to recover from the pandemic. There is hardly any economic sector spared from the need to rethink and re-adjust business operations, supply chains, critical assets and alike.

In the future, improving situational awareness will be a must-do for companies. They must stay abreast of key geopolitical trends and world events if they want to take sound and well-informed decisions.

In the past few years, many boards got used to considering a range of “standard risks” to their operations such as fraud, corruption, cybercrimes and attacks, trade sanctions et al. The list has always been long. But broader geopolitical trends and risks are bound to become more important than ever before.

But they can hardly be quantified. And they don’t fit into a balance sheet. All too often, they are either ignored or being put on hold for later. But spotting world events and factoring them into business planning is absolutely key. It is the mental software economic leaders need.

China is a case in point. Western companies across multiple industries have found it increasingly difficult to navigate Chinese markets as the country has become more politicized — and punitive. Companies once thought they were safe by not mentioning the famous 3 T’s: Tibet, Taiwan and Tiananmen Square. But there’s now a much bigger list of issues that could arouse the wrath of Beijing and Chinese customers. The Chinese leadership’s level of tolerance for critical viewpoints has increasingly become limited – and there are no signs that this will change.

Hence businesses around the world need to better understand underlying economic, political and social trends in China. They need to spend time on building scenarios if they want to reduce risks to the company’s core business, assets abroad, critical supply chains and workforce.

As we look into 2021, businesses will likely become more politicised. They could get between the frontlines of geopolitical competition. There are plenty good reasons for them to invest in their own intelligence and diplomatic capabilities. The corporate diplomatic corps, equipped with a set of values, a foreign policy of its own, and a public diplomacy unit with ears and eyes to the ground, is a necessity of the post-2020 business environment.

We believe this crisis is a call to action for embracing change, transformation and new opportunities. As possibilitarians, we accept that this has been a challenging year, but ultimately, we steadfastly believe in a positive year ahead.

This article has been written by Dr. Stefanie Babst and Elizabeth Linder and co-signed by Ambassador Patricia Haslach, April Gow and Jolana Vaino, Brooch Associates, London